Ahead of October 1 court hearing, Nintendo has zero chance of prevailing over current Palworld versions: it may get $30K chump change

Context:

• We’ve been following the Nintendo v. Pocketpair (effectively, Pokémon v. Palworld) patent case from a distance, and have previously asked locals to go to the Tokyo District Court on our behalf to inspect the record (September 16, 2025 games fray article). games fray‘s patent-focused sibling site ip fray also keeps an eye on developments in that increasingly interesting forum (May 24, 2026 ip fray article).
• In parallel to the Japanese infringement lawsuit that started in 2024, Nintendo has been trying to obtain additional patents that it could potentially assert against Palworld in new cases. But both the Japan Patent Office (JPO) (October 29, 2025 games fray article, and with a view to Palworld Mobile: May 14, 2026 games fray article) and United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) (April 1, 2026 games fray article) have lately grown skeptical of Nintendo’s game-rule patent applications.
• Pocketpair raised various defenses, but also made various changes to Palworld’s gameplay mechanics to work around Nintendo’s patents-in-suit.

What’s new:

• The public record strongly suggests that the parties have completed their written pleadings and the submission of evidence, such as expert reports.
• The court has scheduled a presentation of evidence for October 1, and will express an opinion on November 9, 2026.
• Nintendo initially targeted all Palworld versions, but in November 2025, the plaintiffs (Nintendo and The Pokémon Company) amended the scope of their claims (in terms of what they are seeking from the court, not in terms of a patent claim) so that the case is now limited to older versions of Palworld (i.e., before Pocketpair made changes to eliminate patent exposure).

Direct impact:

• Based on the narrowed scope of the case, we cannot see any pathway to victory over any current or very recent Palworld version (nor Palworld 1.0, which should launch soon) for Nintendo. There will be no injunction with real-world impact.
• All that is left of Nintendo’s case at this stage relates to old versions of Palworld. Even if — which is far from a given — Nintendo overcame all of the usual hurdles (defending its patents against Pocketpair’s invalidity contentions, proving infringement, and ultimately proving that any damage was caused by the alleged infringement), the most it could get is JPY 5 million, the equivalent of $30K. That is chump change for either party, and just a rounding error compared to Nintendo’s litigation expenses.

Wider ramifications: Palworld 1.0 is going to launch soon, and given that Nintendo’s patent assertions can’t impact that release in any meaningful way, the question is whether Nintendo will recognize that patents are not the answer to competition in this space or bring additional lawsuits against Pocketpair. The fact that Nintendo is finded it increasingly hard to obtain game-rule patents in key jurisdictions may dissuade Nintendo (and possibly also other companies in the games industry) from filing any further lawsuits of this kind.